The numbers don’t lie. Cumulative Volume Delta across Binance’s futures and spot markets has turned negative. Translation? Sellers are winning. More selling pressure than buying power. When CVD goes negative, it means capital is flowing out faster than it’s coming in. Bad news for bulls hoping for a quick bounce.
Monday’s price action painted a grim picture—literally. Bitcoin dropped 4.86%, forming what chart nerds call a “bearish marubozu” candlestick. No shadows, just a big red body. Sellers in complete control from open to close. Not the kind of candle you want to see if you’re hoping for higher prices. With the upcoming halving event in April 2024, current market behavior contradicts historical post-halving rallies.
The technical picture isn’t any prettier. Bitcoin’s now trading below both its 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Next support sits around $89,200, with the 200-day SMA way down at $81,661. The dramatic rise in Bitcoin/USDT open interest on Binance by approximately 12,000 BTC further confirms the bearish outlook. This aligns with Binance recording the largest-ever derivatives discount with Bitcoin derivatives trading $62.40 below spot price. To turn bullish again, Bitcoin would need to reclaim $99,520. Good luck with that.
What’s weird is March is typically Bitcoin’s time to shine. Since 2013, it’s averaged 13.42% returns. This year? Not so much. The current price action looks nothing like a healthy bull market.
If current support gives way, Bitcoin could test $89,200 next. Some pessimistic analysts are even talking about the $70,000-$75,000 range. Ouch.
To shift sentiment back to bullish, Bitcoin would need to climb above $106,000 and enter price discovery mode again. Until then, it seems the bears are calling the shots on Binance.
