While Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April 2024 sent shockwaves through the crypto market, altcoin enthusiasts are still waiting for their moment in the sun. Historical patterns suggested altseason should have kicked off by now – roughly 240 days post-halving. But here we are, 13 months later, and Bitcoin’s dominance remains stubbornly high.
The playbook seemed clear enough. Bitcoin halving reduces block rewards by half, price goes up, and altcoins eventually catch fire. That’s how it worked in 2017 and 2021. Like clockwork. Except this time, something’s different. Bitcoin’s doing its thing, with predictions ranging from $100,000 to a wildly optimistic $250,000, but altcoins are just… sitting there.
Sure, there was that brief altcoin surge in November 2024. A head fake, as it turns out. The market quickly remembered it wasn’t quite ready for altseason and went right back to Bitcoin maximalism. Even CoinCodex’s relatively conservative prediction of $170,000 for Bitcoin by August 2025 hasn’t sparked the usual altcoin frenzy. The 652% price increase seen after the 2020 halving marks the lowest historical post-halving gain.
Despite Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory toward $170K, altcoins remain oddly quiet, suggesting this crypto cycle might break from historical patterns.
The reasons? Take your pick. Interest rates are higher than in previous cycles. The spot Bitcoin ETF approval changed market dynamics. Or maybe it’s simpler – altcoins need to prove their worth through actual technological advancement, not just riding Bitcoin’s coattails. Some platforms are even experiencing negative APR rates due to excess liquidity and insufficient borrowers. With only 1.3 million bitcoins left to be mined, scarcity continues to drive Bitcoin’s dominance over altcoins.
The tokenomics tell part of the story. While Bitcoin maintains its disciplined, deflationary approach, altcoins are all over the place with their supply mechanisms. Some might say that’s the point – different strokes for different folks. But the market seems to prefer Bitcoin’s predictability right now.
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions could shake things up. But for now, altcoin holders are left checking their portfolios and muttering, “Any day now.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin keeps doing what it was designed to do – march toward that 21 million supply cap, one block at a time. Altseason will come when it comes. Or maybe it won’t. That’s crypto for you.
